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Prediction for CME (2023-09-16T09:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-09-16T09:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26949/-1
CME Note: Wide, complex, difficult to analyze CME with primary directionality (bulk) to the southwest in SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs but containing features also seen to the west, south, and southeast along a discontinuous front. Associated with a large-scale filament eruption taking place on the Earth-facing disk from 2023-09-16T07:00Z to 09:00Z seen best in SDO/GOES 304; filament extends from N30W00 southwest through N10W30 with a minor, more narrow segment extending back east from N10W30 back towards S03W05. Arrival signature: Sudden sharp jump in solar wind parameters with B total reaching 21 nT and speed increasing above 550 km/s. May be indicative of additional coronal hole high speed stream influences (Tarik Salman, LASSOS team) from coronal hole at central meridian on 2023-09-15. Less likely but possible that this is a combined arrival of this CME and the 2023-09-14T23:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-09-18T12:58Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-19T05:11Z (-9.92h, +11.04h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/09/16 09:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 15:30Z; 31.5Rsun; W Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 23:40Z; 31.5Rsun; E Direction
POS Difference: 8:10
POS Midpoint: 19:35Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 10:25

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.53
Travel Time: ~6.53 * 10:25 = 68:01

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-09-19T05:11Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time: 5%

Lead Time: 42.83 hour(s)
Difference: -16.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-09-16T18:08Z

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